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While heating oil prices are expected to stay about the same, according to September figures from the Department of Energy, residential natural-gas prices this season are expected to be 10 to 15 percent higher than last winter.
Officials at local utilities were a little more cautious Monday.
"If you're looking for an exact prediction, I can't give one," said Michael Meath, vice president of Agway Energy Products. "But my guess is, and all the indicators are, that this will be a normal winter weather season and prices should be at least as high as last year."
Joe Mirabito of Mirabito Gas & Electric Inc. said the energy industry is so volatile, "I can't even venture a guess."
Factors that influence natural gas prices, utility officials said, include the amount of gas in storage as winter starts, temperatures over the season and the spot market price.
Last spring and early summer, gas was selling at more than $6 per thousand cubic feet at wholesale, and the Energy Department warned that gas inventories were dangerously low. Shortages were possible this winter, the department said.
Since then, gas supplies have increased to near-normal levels and prices have dropped to the $4.50 range.
Local utilities said they didn't expect any problems with natural gas supply this winter.
"The big thing is that people are working hard to make sure there's enough supply, and that's a good thing," Mirabito said. "The price the people may have to pay for that supply may not make people happy."
If natural gas is put into storage while prices are high, he said, that affects prices in the winter.
"In the middle of the summer, inventories were not in good shape," Mirabito said. "However, because of what people were willing to pay for natural gas to put it into storage, the high price encouraged additional production."
While New York State Electric & Gas Corp.' delivery prices for natural gas have been frozen since 1995, spokesman Clay Ellis said, the changing market price of the fuel has a considerable impact on customers' natural gas bills.
The cost of natural gas purchased this summer for use during the coming heating season was about double the price during the summer of 2002, Ellis said in a statement.
Stored gas doesn't supply all that is needed over the winter, so additional gas needs to be purchased at the spot market price, Meath said. That price is driven by, among other factors, the weather and the economy.
Heating oil prices from October to March are expected to average about the same as last winter —a little over $1.30 per gallon, the Department of Energy said.
Agway is keeping an eye on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is cutting production as prices fall on a barrel of oil, but Meath said he doesn't anticipate any kind of shortage.
In addition, because heating oils is an entirely competitive product, there are many opportunities for customers to choose special ceiling- or price-protection plans, he said.
Mirabito said he anticipated that heating oil would be consistent with last year's prices or hopefully a little less.
As Iraqi oil becomes more consistent in supply and enters the market, it will soften prices, he said. But other parts of the world have an effect as well.
"We have to pay close attention to our South American friends, such as Venezuela," he said.
The Department of Energy reported in September that it expects oil prices "to remain relatively firm for the rest of the year, even with the expected increases in Iraqi oil supplies, largely because of tight OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) commercial inventories."
Propane might be affected by some infrastructure issues, Meath said, because of maintenance on the Texas Eastern Transmission pipeline.
"That's going to have an impact on the product price for probably the next month or two," he said. "But hopefully those will be resolved before the severe cold winter."
Infrastructure is a problem for all types of fuel, Mirabito said, and has a tremendous impact on cost.
"We can't meet today's energy demands with an infrastructure that was designed to meet the energy requirements of the early '70s," he said.
Consumers can cut costs
This winter, consumers can take steps to mitigate their energy costs, utilities said.
Mirabito suggested consumers make sure the heating unit they use is as efficient as possible.
Ellis recommended cleaning or replacing furnace filters once a month or when they get dirty, and keeping heating supply and return registers and radiators clean. Customers should also move obstructions such as furniture or draperies away from heating units.
In addition, consumers can consider installing a programmable thermostat, opening drapes on southern windows during sunny days and closing them at night, and dressing in warm layers.
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